According to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), while global growth in 2018 remained close to post crisis highs, the global expansion is weakening and at a rate that is somewhat faster than expected. As a result, we have upgraded our global growth forecast for 2018 to 3.3% from a previous estimate of 3.0%. The WUI’s latest data shows a sharp increase in global uncertainty in the first quarter of 2019 (Figure 1). Economic Outlook Growth is projected to remain favourable in 2018, with domestic demand as the key driver of growth. In your view, what is the greatest risk to the health of the U.S. economy This statistic shows the share of economic sectors in the global gross domestic product (GDP) from 2008 to 2018. Interest rates and bond yields, key indicators of the cost of capital, are increasing in most markets. Global growth for 2018 is estimated at 3.7 percent, as in the October 2018 World Economic Outlook (WEO) forecast, despite weaker performance in some economies, notably Europe and Asia. In effect, the international economy will grow at an average rate of around 3.7% in 2018. All rights reserved. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and do not necessarily represent the views of the IMF and its Executive Board. Delivering practical thought leadership—on risk and strategy, talent and technology, globalization and compliance, financial reporting, and more—all through a board lens. What is driving that pick-up in growth? “The unemployment rate is down to 4.1 percent and could get to as low as 3.7 percent.”. “Xi has centralized power, ousted rivals, and tightened controls. FocusEconomics Consensus Forecast panelists expect the global economy to expand 3.4% in 2018, which is unchanged from last month’s estimate. However, risks—in the form of high household debt, increasing uncertainties due to geopolitical events, rising protectionist rhetoric, and a move away from a multilateral trading … Although we endeavor to provide accurate and timely information, there can be no guarantee that such information is accurate as of the date it is received or that it will continue to be accurate in the future. Unwinding central bank balance sheets of assets acquired following the financial crisis is unprecedented and fraught with challenges. © 2020 KPMG LLP, a Delaware limited liability partnership and a member firm of the KPMG global organization of independent member firms affiliated with KPMG International Limited, a private English company limited by guarantee. No one should act upon such information without appropriate professional advice after a thorough examination of the particular situation. This represents an improvement compared to the 3.1% recorded in 2016, and 3.6% in … Consumer confidence is strong and businesses are investing, but wage growth is not significant. Launched at this year’s World Economic Forum Annual Meeting, the 22nd Annual Global CEO Survey from PwC highlights the hopes and concerns of business leaders. By not identifying an heir apparent, Xi may try to extend his presidency beyond 2022. A podcast series to explore the emerging issues and pressing challenges facing boards today. However, as Abruzzese told Jose Rodriguez, Executive Director and Partner-in-Charge of the KPMG Audit Committee Institute, the U.S. political climate has become a determining factor for the length and strength of the current global economic expansion. The global stance of the current U.S. administration is shifting political and economic influence around the world, with China finding its voice on the world stage and Russia reemerging as a geopolitical force, said Abruzzese. These references are line with the latest reading of the World Uncertainty Index (WUI). China’s private nonfinancial sector debt is expected to rise to more than 250 percent of GDP by 2022, above peak indebtedness that precipitated several modern credit crises around the globe, but Xi remains committed to 6.5 percent growth in 2018. Under the New Southbound Policy, Taiwan is deepening ties across the board with the 10 Association of Southeast Asian Nations member states, six South Asian countries, Australia and New Zealand. *Of 962 corporate directors and senior executives surveyed during the Jan. 18 webcast. Trade performance is expected to benefit from favourable global demand, new export production capacity and exposure to the global technology upcycle. Leaders of the G20, EU, UN, and IMF at the G20 leaders summit in Hamburg, Germany July 7, 2017. 2018 2018 is on track to be the first year since the financial crisis that the global economy will be operating at or near full capacity. As we enter 2019, the outlook for the global economy is beginning to deteriorate and it is almost certain that overall global economic growth will slow in the coming year. On the January 2018 KPMG/NACD Quarterly Audit Committee Webcast, Leo Abruzzese, Global Forecasting Director for the Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU), painted the picture of a global economy operating with a significant tailwind: coordinated growth across major developed economies, a return to a more normal interest-rate environment in the United States, and maturation and reform taking hold in certain developing economies. In risk oversight executives surveyed during the Jan. 18 webcast global organization visit. 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